Kalshi has raised a $185 million round led by a crypto-centric VC company paradigm, bringing the company's valuation to $2 billion in money, with representatives from Paradigm and Kalshi confirmed to TechCrunch.
“The forecast market reminds me of Crypto 15 years ago,” said Matt Fan, co-founder and managing partner of Paradigm. “There's no better team to expand the forecast market than calci and reshape what people think about everything, from elections and economic markets to weather and sports.”
The Wall Street Journal first reported on the round.
The news comes a day after Bloomberg reported that Calci's biggest but regulatory rival Polymeruk is raising $200 million with a money valuation of about $1 billion led by the Founders Fund. The deal is not final yet, sources said. The Founders Fund declined to comment.
In the forecast market, blockchain technology allows users to place bets on everything from pop culture events to political events.
When doing mathematics, calci-backing investors are paying a premium over those that support polymet when the latter trade approaches, as reported by the latter.
There is a good reason for this. Polymarket has been banned from the United States since 2022 as part of an agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's US regulator.
According to Polymarket's Terms of Use, many other countries and states prohibit or restrict Polymarket. These include the UK, France, Ontario, Singapore, Poland, Thailand, Belgium and Taiwan. Regulators argue that these are betting markets and should be licensed like gambling facilities or securities markets and regulated in that way.
Meanwhile, Calci worked through a similar battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, signing contracts regulated by the CFTC. US residents are free to use the site.
While rebellious and unregulated markets may appeal to those who oppose such things, limited partner investors in venture funds also tend to prefer risk.
Still, if Founders Funds write big checks, that could mean Polymet is moving forward in hopes of ending a formal ban under the more encryption-friendly Trump administration. Elon Musk's X doesn't seem to be waiting for that. The companies announced a partnership agreement earlier this month to create a “official” forecast market for Polymarket X, but details of what this entailed were scarce.