A new report says Apple's approach to leveraging the third-party developer community's ideas for new iOS and Mac features and apps could come at a significant cost. You can download the iOS 18 public beta now to see Apple's changes firsthand ahead of its fall release. The changes could affect apps that currently bring in an estimated $393 million in revenue and have been downloaded about 58 million times in the past year, according to an analysis by app intelligence firm Appfigures.
At Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference every June, the iPhone maker previews upcoming releases of its software and operating system. These releases often include features that were previously only available in third-party apps. The technique is now so commonplace that it's been given the name “Sherlocking,” which comes from the 1990s when the Search app for Mac borrowed features from a third-party app called Watson. Now, when Apple releases a new feature that was previously outside the realm of third-party apps, it's said to have “Sherlocked” the app.
Previously, a Sherlock app would have made sense – after all, did the iPhone's flashlight really need to be third-party, or would a built-in feature be better? Plus, Apple could take inspiration from what's popular in the third-party developer community to introduce features that better align its software with consumer wants and needs.
Of course, this approach also raises questions about whether Apple is using its own data to decide what to develop next, providing a level playing field for competing apps. For example, before Apple launched its own parental control system, it shut down many third-party apps that had been doing business in this space, citing that their solutions didn't comply with Apple's rules and policies. These apps were denied access to developer APIs to manage Apple's built-in parental controls for years, sparking an antitrust investigation.
In recent years, Apple has “Sherlocked” third parties with features like Continuity Camera, medication logging, sleep tracking, and mood tracking, as well as the release of apps like Freeform and Journal. This year, it has highlighted password managers, call recording and transcription apps, custom emoji creation apps, AI-powered writing tools and math helpers, trail apps, and more.
After analyzing third-party apps that generated more than 1,000 downloads per year, Appfigures found that there are several genres that will be targeted by Apple in 2024.
In terms of total global revenue, these categories generated significant revenue over the past 12 months, with the trail apps category being the highest grossing for the year at $307 million, led by market leader AllTrails, Apple's 2023 “App of the Year.” Grammar helper apps such as Grammarly also generated $35.7 million, while math helpers and password managers generated $23.4 million and $20.3 million, respectively. Apps that create custom emojis also generated $7 million.
Image credit: Appfigures
Of these, trail apps account for the majority of “potentially sherlocked” revenue – 78% – and also 40% of sherlocked app downloads, according to Appfigures. In May 2024, total trail app consumer spend will reach an estimated $28.8 million and 2.5 million downloads, giving you an idea of the scale.
Many of these app categories are growing rapidly, with math solution apps seeing a 43% YoY revenue increase, followed by grammar helpers (+40%), password managers (+38%) and trial apps (+28%), although emoji creators saw a -17% YoY decrease.
Image credit: Appfigures
In terms of downloads, grammar helper apps were installed 9.4 million times in the past 12 months, followed by emoji makers (10.6 million), math solution apps (9.5 million), and password managers (457,000 installs).
While these apps certainly have a dedicated user base who may not switch to first-party products anytime soon, Apple's ability to build in and offer similar functionality could hurt their growth potential: regular users may be satisfied with Apple's “good enough” solution and not seek out alternatives.
But apps that continue to develop new features and enhancements beyond what Apple offers, while also taking advantage of other new ways to reach users, such as Apple's improved Siri, may be more likely to be successful than others.
Image credit: Appfigures
This article was originally published on June 18 and has been updated with information about the iOS 18 public beta.