If there was one phrase to describe the tone and theme of 2024, at least in the transportation sector, it was “business flogging.” Legacy automakers are reorienting their all-EV-or-bust strategies, startups are pivoting, and some Silicon Valley venture capitalists and executives are adjusting their views to the changing political landscape, and their companies are is the main character.
Jaguar's rebranding took it in a completely new and polarizing direction, garnering a lot of attention and setting social media on fire for at least a few days. GM delayed its EV plans and was forced to change lanes in software, but the problems with the Chevrolet Blazer EV, which had a positive development, accelerated internal restructuring. But the automaker's most notable change was its decision not to fund the development of cruise robotaxis.
Everywhere you looked, founders, venture capitalists, and auto industry executives were taking advantage of shifts in consumer demand and, in many cases, changing tack simply to survive.
Discover the biggest transportation industry topics and stories of 2024.
Self-driving cars: Pivot, Survivor, Scale
The heady days of self-driving technology from 2016 to 2020 are long gone, and the hype cycle has taken us through a trough of disillusionment. A few surviving AV startups, including Ghost Autonomy and Phantom Auto, which had already pivoted, took their last breath in 2024. Other AV startups have taken a cue from their peers in other fields and gone on the defensive, officially becoming dual-use companies. Other companies, like TuSimple, have almost completely pivoted away from developing autonomous technology and instead *checked note* started embracing AI animations and games.
The road to commercial robotaxi business is still difficult. GM has decided to stop funding its cruise robotaxi development program. The automaker will now use its technology and talent to gradually improve hands-off advanced driver assistance systems and eventually introduce self-driving personal vehicles.
But thanks to the boom and hype of the AI industry and renewed interest in end-to-end approaches to autonomy, AVs have received a boost (just ask Wayve). Waymo and Zoox are two well-funded AV companies still on the path to commercial robotaxis. And of course, there's Tesla. Tesla plans to unveil a CyberCab prototype this year and begin production in 2025 or 2026. CEO Elon Musk also promised to unleash “unsupervised FSD” and launch robotaxi services in California and Texas next year, but we haven't. Given Musk's tendency to miss deadlines, these promises are met with considerable skepticism.
Other AV must-reads for 2024:
EV is put to the test
Legacy automakers like Ford and GM have spent billions to beef up their electric vehicle lineups and invest in U.S. battery manufacturing facilities to stay at the top of their supply chains. EV sales continued to hit record highs this year, supported by the Biden administration's EV tax credit. But automakers and investors are concerned that sales of electric vehicles, which accounted for 8.9% of total car sales in the third quarter, are not growing as fast as expected. Tesla's own profits were also declining at the start of the year, and Musk said automakers were retreating from EVs due to pressure from hybrid vehicles. The incoming administration's plan to cut the EV tax credit could cause this backlash to continue into 2025.
Meanwhile, in the EV startup space, the SPAC model continues to prove unsuccessful in driving long-term business growth. We chronicled the chaotic fall of Fisker, which collapsed due to the whims of its founder. Among them, Fisker left its headquarters in complete disarray and owners had to make a deal with American Lease, which purchased Fisker vehicles, to help with the recall. It also includes the background. repair.
Canoe has also struggled to maintain enough cash to operate and began furloughing employees in December. The startup's financial difficulties are likely due to unsustainable spending habits, including spending twice Canoo's annual revenue on CEO Tony Aquila's private jet and acquiring the assets of bankrupt peer Arrival. It may have occurred.
Despite raising more than $1 billion when it merged with a SPAC in 2021, Faraday Future is rapidly sinking and is now Data mining company Palantir now owns 8.7% of the company.
Rivian was one of the only new EV players not to go public through a special purpose merger. Rivian hasn't had the smoothest run since its record-breaking IPO, but despite some speed bumps along the way, including a series of lawsuits accusing top executives of harassment, the EV maker is expected to continue to grow in 2024. has reached several major milestones.
Rivian unveiled its next-generation R2 SUV and surprise R3 hatchback in March. In the summer, Rivian's path to survival was to sell the improved R1T pickup truck and R1S SUV at a profit and survive long enough to keep the cheaper R2 SUV on the road. It's now about whether you can do it or not. Rivian also secured a $6.6 billion loan to restart production at its Georgia factory, a deal that appears to have worked out thanks to a secret agreement with the United Auto Workers union.
Tesla was in a state of flux as Mr. Musk struggled to preserve his $56 billion paycheck through sheer determination and investor loyalty. The automaker announced mass layoffs this year, laying off its entire Supercharger team, abandoning plans to build a $25,000 EV, overseeing seven Cybertruck recalls, and unveiling a robotaxi prototype. did.
Other EV must-reads for 2024:
eVTOL continues to attract investors
This year has been a year of great intent for the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicle industry. It felt like there were announcements every other week, with two of the biggest companies, Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation, sharing plans to launch future commercial electric air taxis starting in 2025.
It was also a year of major fundraising as both companies sought to secure more funding to obtain Federal Aviation Administration certification and launch commercial air taxi service in 2025. For example, Joby first secured a $500 million bag from Toyota and later raised $222 million. Commenced public offering of $300 million. Archer recently raised $430 million and is teaming up with Anduril to defend it. This theme is expected to continue through 2025 as defense technology heats up. And Beta Technologies raised $318 million in Series C funding.
There are also a number of partnerships between eVTOL startups and more traditional airlines, such as Beta's recent partnership with Air New Zealand, to develop vertiports in major metropolitan areas in the US, Europe and Asia. was also held.
However, not all startups were so lucky, companies ran out of capital and were unable to find further funding. German eVTOL startup Lilium has filed for bankruptcy after being unable to raise the funds it needs to continue operating. The company shut down operations and laid off 1,000 employees in December, but appears to have gotten a last-minute lifeline from investors. stay tuned.
Next year, 2025, will be the year we will find out whether the remaining companies can secure the appropriate FAA approvals and start doing business with eVTOL.
Other must-reads for eVTOL in 2024 include:
Ultra-compact mobility that wobbles forward
The hype around shared micromobility died out a long time ago. This year there was a last breath of consolidation, a pivot, and a few survivors.
Tier and Dott eventually merged, and Lime continued on a steady path to, if not consistent profitability, then at least sustainability and market power.
VanMoof's 2023 bankruptcy revealed how difficult it is to scale new e-bike businesses, despite consumer desire for sexy, sleek e-bikes. Cake filed for bankruptcy earlier this year, and Onyx Motorcycles was on the verge of bankruptcy after its 37-year-old owner suddenly passed away, leaving a huge mess. Cake and Onyx are given a new chance to survive in 2025.
Some startups have managed to figure out how to keep their e-bike businesses afloat. Look at Jocko. The startup overcame the hurdles to turn its docking e-bike rental service for delivery drivers into a profitable business and branched out into manufacturing battery charging cabinets.
Another micromobility must-read for 2024 is: